ABC
According to a recent Marist survey of 1,137 registered voters, Donald Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden in Ohio during the 2024 Election cycle has dwindled to its narrowest margin yet. Despite Ohio’s historical support for Trump, with him winning the state by eight points in both the 2016 and 2020 races, the current poll indicates a tighter race, with Trump leading by just seven points at 48 percent to 41.
This seven-point lead marks Trump’s smallest margin in any Ohio election poll dating back to November 2023, as reported by 538’s collection of surveys. The timing of this poll coincides with Trump’s recent legal troubles, as he became the only former U.S. president convicted of a crime after being found guilty on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in his hush money trial on May 30, Via MSNBC News.
Additionally, the poll results coincide with Republican State Senator Michael Rulli’s victory over Democrat Michael Kripchak in a special election race for Ohio’s 6th District seat by a narrower margin than expected. Rulli’s reduced victory margin, compared to his previous wins, indicates potential shifts in voter sentiment in the state.
Despite Trump’s previous dominance in Ohio polling, recent surveys have shown a tightening race. In late May, a National Public Affairs poll indicated an eight-point lead for Trump (48 percent to 40), while a Data for Progress survey last November showed a similar margin (51 percent to 43). Even in March 2024, an Emerson College poll revealed a nine-point lead for Trump (50 percent to 41), suggesting a trend of diminishing leads for the former president.
Ohio’s historical significance as a bellwether state has also been challenged in recent elections. While traditionally predictive of the national outcome, Ohio’s divergence from the national trend in 2020, when Trump won the state but lost the election to Biden overall, has raised questions about its predictive power.
Despite Ohio’s historical Republican leanings, Biden has managed to make inroads among certain demographics, such as white voters, where Trump’s lead has narrowed. However, Trump maintains a strong lead among independent voters and those under the age of 35, told AP News.
The economy remains a critical issue for Ohio voters, with a majority believing they were better off financially under Trump’s presidency. This sentiment could play a pivotal role in shaping voter preferences in November.
As the election approaches, the narrowing gap between Trump and Biden in Ohio suggests a closely contested race, with both candidates vying for crucial support across demographic lines. With less than five months remaining until Election Day, Ohio’s status as a bellwether state hangs in the balance, awaiting the verdict of its electorate.
