(Nick Oxford and Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP)
Despite Donald Trump’s recent surge in some state polling averages, experts caution that this apparent momentum could be an illusion. While Trump has overtaken Vice President Kamala Harris in certain states’ polling, some analysts argue that this shift may be influenced by a flood of GOP-leaning polls, raising concerns about the accuracy of these averages.
Recent reporting by The New Republic highlights skepticism surrounding the validity of Trump’s polling advantage. The media suggests that mainstream outlets have accounted for the influx of GOP-aligned polls, but some pollsters are not so confident. A key example cited by TNR is Trump’s lead over Harris in North Carolina, which a GOP polling firm, Quantus, took credit for. This instance, according to critics, could reflect a broader problem.
“To proponents of what might be called the ‘Red Wave Theory’ of polling, this was a blatant example of a phenomenon that they see as widespread: A flood of GOP-aligned polls has been released for the precise purpose of influencing the polling averages, and thus the election forecasts, in Trump’s favor,” the report explains. “In the view of these critics, the Quantus example (the firm subsequently denied any such intent) only made all this more overt: Dozens of such polls have been released since then, and they are in no small part responsible for tipping the averages—and the forecasts—toward Trump.”
The article points to Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg and data analyst Tom Bonier, who have been vocal about their skepticism regarding these polling trends. In 2022, both Rosenberg and Bonier were correct in predicting a much closer outcome than what many polls had suggested. They now warn that similar tactics are being employed again, potentially skewing public perception of Trump’s strength in the upcoming election.
“In their telling, GOP data is serving an essential end of pro-Trump propaganda, which is heavily geared toward painting him as a formidable, ‘strong’ figure whose triumph over the ‘weak’ Kamala Harris is inevitable,” the report continues. “This illusion is essential to Trump’s electoral strategy, goes this reading, and GOP-aligned data firms are concertedly attempting to build up that impression, both in the polling averages and in media coverage that is gravitationally influenced by it.”
Rosenberg and Bonier warn that these polling tactics may be part of a broader “psyop”—a psychological operation aimed at spreading doubt and demoralization among Democrats. By presenting Trump as an unstoppable force in the polls, the GOP may be trying to create an impression of inevitability, which could sway public perception and influence voter turnout. This strategy, critics argue, is designed to make Democrats feel as though the election is slipping away, even if the reality on the ground is much more competitive.
Columnist Greg Sargent, who penned the TNR article, also raises concerns about how these polling trends could mislead both voters and journalists. “Rosenberg and Bonier, the leading critics of these polling aggregations, are quick to point out that even shifts of a small magnitude produced by GOP polls risk badly misleading people,” Sargent writes. He highlights that small changes in polling averages, driven by a surge of partisan data, could give the false impression of a major shift in the race.
Sargent took to social media to emphasize the dangers of this manipulation, stating, “That’s a real problem!” His comments underscore the risk that journalists could unknowingly amplify these small polling shifts, creating a narrative of Trump gaining unstoppable momentum—when in fact, these changes may not accurately reflect the electorate’s views.
As the 2024 election approaches, experts like Rosenberg and Bonier urge caution in interpreting polling data. They warn that GOP-aligned firms may be influencing polling averages to benefit Trump and shape media coverage in his favor, creating a misleading narrative of his strength. For voters and analysts alike, it’s a reminder to scrutinize polling sources and remain wary of any supposed momentum that may, in fact, be an illusion.
