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Vice President Kamala Harris is reportedly aware that her polling situation could reveal a key vulnerability that may help former President Donald Trump secure a victory in the upcoming election. According to Patrick Healy’s analysis for The New York Times, Harris is working to address this potential weakness before it’s too late.
The issue, Healy explained, largely centers around the economy. Many voters, particularly moderates, independents, and swing voters, are still dissatisfied with the economic situation, despite signs of improvement over the past year. “Many moderate, independent, swing, and undecided voters list the economy as their top issue. And many of them still praise Trump on economic issues,” Healy wrote.
The ongoing frustration with inflation, in particular, is a sticking point for voters who may be hesitant to embrace the Biden-Harris administration’s economic policies. “Americans as a rule hate inflation. Many of them fault the Biden-Harris administration,” Healy continued. “I don’t believe undecided voters who care most about the economy and are pinched by inflation are going to embrace Harris. I see no clear sign in the battleground states that her economic message is convincing large numbers of undecided and swing voters that she will be better on the economy than Trump.”
However, there is one factor preventing these undecided voters from fully committing to Trump: his controversial character and involvement in the events of January 6. Many of these voters are moderate Republicans or independents who may support someone like Nikki Haley but are uncomfortable with Trump’s conduct.
“In my three years moderating Times Opinion focus groups, I’ve heard embarrassment from some non-MAGA people who voted for Trump. His conduct on Jan. 6, 2021, disgusts many of them,” Healy wrote. This discomfort with Trump’s character is an opportunity for Harris to sway these voters away from Trump, especially as she begins to focus on his actions during the Capitol riot.
In the final stretch of the race, Harris is reportedly leaning into this angle, campaigning alongside former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney in key swing states. The focus of their messaging? Trump’s role on January 6, his inflammatory rhetoric, and his threats against critics and opponents. “She is campaigning with Liz Cheney in swing states and will be talking about Jan. 6,” Healy noted. By reminding voters of the reasons they may feel uneasy about Trump’s behavior, Harris hopes to capitalize on that discomfort and pull votes away from him.
At the same time, Harris continues to emphasize her positions on key issues like the economy and abortion rights. Her goal is to present herself as the candidate who can both address voters’ economic concerns and defend democratic principles, while Trump focuses on divisive culture war issues.
Meanwhile, Trump is trying to counter Harris’s efforts with his own aggressive messaging, particularly targeting cultural issues and LGBTQ rights. “He knows what he’s doing by sowing anxiety,” Healy wrote, highlighting Trump’s strategy of using fear to galvanize his base and win over undecided voters.
Harris, Healy concluded, cannot afford to let this election become a simple fear vs. status quo choice. To win over the crucial undecided voters, she will need to not only address their economic concerns but also remind them why they were uneasy about Trump in the first place.
