The Majority Runs Through New York’ as Embattled Candidates Brace for Tight Race Amid Scandals

As the 2024 election approaches, New York’s congressional landscape is heating up, with politicians on both sides facing scandals that could impact control of the U.S. House of Representatives. In a high-stakes battle for seven House seats, local issues like corruption, ethics violations, and political gaffes are front and center in races that might shape the House majority. For candidates here, national issues have taken a back seat to New York’s own turbulent political landscape, a trend that could make all the difference on November 5th.

New York Democrats, particularly in suburban swing districts, are spotlighting Republican scandals to shift voter focus away from Washington gridlock and back toward local issues. With recent allegations against high-profile Republicans, Democrats see an opening. “Republicans in the state are on their back heel for sure,” said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, pointing to recent GOP controversies as evidence of what she calls a troubled “Republican machine in New York.”

Though Republicans captured several Democratic seats in 2022, Democrats believe the tide has turned. Earlier this year, Democrats reclaimed one seat when Rep. Tom Suozzi won a special election to replace former Rep. George Santos, who pleaded guilty to fraud and identity theft after his historic expulsion from Congress. Democrats hope Suozzi’s victory is a sign of things to come in November. For candidates like Ocasio-Cortez, Nassau County’s “self-dealing” remains a target. “There’s a reason why George Santos got there…The New York Republican Party generates tons of George Santoses,” she added.

The race in New York’s 4th district exemplifies the charged atmosphere. Former detective Rep. Anthony D’Esposito is now facing accusations of putting his fiancée’s daughter and his mistress on his office’s taxpayer-funded payroll. D’Esposito, in a heated rematch with former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen, called the allegations “political tabloid garbage” in a statement, accusing Democrats of “distracting Long Islanders from [their] failing record.” But with millions of campaign dollars at stake, the allegations have kept his personal life in the spotlight as Election Day approaches.

Further north, Rep. Mike Lawler is fighting to put a blackface incident behind him. Photos of Lawler dressed as Michael Jackson at a college Halloween party re-emerged, prompting criticism from his opponent, former Rep. Mondaire Jones. Lawler apologized, saying he would never do such a thing today, but Jones called the incident “deeply offensive” and emblematic of Lawler’s character.

Republicans, however, are pointing to Democratic controversies, like the recent federal indictment of New York City Mayor Eric Adams on corruption charges. Some say this has tarnished the Democratic Party’s image across the state. “In New York, Democrats control everything,” Lawler emphasized, “so most voters in the suburbs here are going, ‘Yeah, I don’t want this.’” With Gov. Kathy Hochul still facing criticism over handling New York’s blue-to-red congressional flips in 2022, GOP candidates argue that the Democrats’ own failings have given them momentum.

The broader context of the presidential election isn’t lost on voters, either. Candidates find themselves contending with the nationalization of local issues as their opponents draw comparisons to high-profile national figures. Political observers expect a record turnout this year, as voters motivated by the presidential race also weigh in on down-ballot candidates.

“The majority runs through a very small number of seats,” said Ocasio-Cortez. “Flipping the New York seats alone could potentially flip the entire House.” For candidates and voters alike, New York’s local issues have taken on national importance — and their outcome may determine not only the state’s political future but also the country’s.