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Nate Silver, the noted pollster and political analyst who accurately forecasted Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, recently shared a surprising “gut” feeling that Trump could retake the White House in 2024. Silver’s prediction caught many off guard, especially since he had previously declared his support for Vice President Kamala Harris.
His insight arrives as Democrats grow anxious over Harris’s campaign momentum in key battleground states. In a recent New York Times piece, Silver reflected on the tight race between Trump and Harris. “So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump,” he wrote, adding that he suspects many Democrats share this anxiety.
But Silver cautioned readers against taking intuition as fact, noting, “I don’t think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut — including mine… You should be open to the possibility that those forecasts are wrong, and that could be the case equally in the direction of Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris.”
One factor behind Silver’s prediction is the potential for nonresponse bias in polling. He believes that many Trump supporters remain unreachable by traditional pollsters, partly due to their low levels of social trust and reluctance to engage in media surveys. This unaccounted-for segment of voters could impact election results, leading pollsters to underestimate Trump’s support.
Despite his intuition, Silver gave Democrats a hopeful scenario, suggesting Harris could secure a significant victory if she outperforms current polls by three or four points. Such a win could mirror the sweeping electoral success last seen in Barack Obama’s 2008 election.
However, recent polling data does present challenges for Harris. Three high-quality national polls now show Trump narrowly leading, an unsettling development for Democrats, especially given their existing disadvantage in the Electoral College. In one recent Fox News poll, Trump led Harris by a slim margin, 50% to 48%, reversing Harris’s prior lead. Similarly, the TIPP tracking poll showed Trump at 49% and Harris at 47%.
In contrast, other experts like Democratic strategist James Carville and historian Allan Lichtman, known as the “Nostradamus” of political predictions, foresee a win for Harris. Carville expressed confidence in a Democratic victory despite recent polling trends, noting the GOP’s string of losses since 2018, including Trump’s defeat in 2020 and setbacks in midterm elections.
According to The Daily Mail, Carville argued that Trump lacks a cohesive coalition capable of securing a win this time around. As Election Day nears, Silver’s “gut feeling” raises questions about polling reliability and hints at a fiercely contested race, with both Trump and Harris facing an uncertain path to the White House.
