Donald Trump's stake is still worth nearly $2 billion, but fears he might follow CEO Devin Nunes and sell stock while it's still worth something is weighing on sentiment. (Kevin Dietsch—Getty Images)
Donald Trump is entering office with ambitious proposals that have his supporters energized and opponents gearing up for a fight. Among the headline-grabbing initiatives are plans for mass deportations and a collaboration with tech billionaire Elon Musk to slash $2 trillion from the federal budget. However, experts are skeptical, describing these goals as unrealistic.
According to a report by The Daily Beast, Wall Street analysts predict that any spending cuts will be far more modest than Trump and Musk are suggesting. “Four in 10 investors, the most to respond to any option, said they expect Musk will find insignificant or modest spending cuts at best,” noted Goldman Sachs.
Analysts argue that factors like interest payments—13% of the budget and non-negotiable—along with Trump’s pledge to protect Social Security and Medicare, which account for half of all government spending, make such reductions virtually impossible.
Harvard economist Jeffrey Frankel was particularly blunt in his assessment, stating, “This goal — which amounts to 31 percent of annual US spending, and 7 percent of US GDP — is sheer fantasy. Say they go fully draconian — starting by abolishing the Department of Education altogether, as Trump has pledged to do.
This would reduce total spending by 4 percent.” This skepticism aligns with a previous fact-check from The Washington Post, which concluded that Musk’s “Department of Government Efficiency” proposals are unattainable.
Trump’s proposed mass deportation plans have also faced scrutiny. While executive orders could make incremental changes to existing removal programs, sweeping actions would require congressional approval—a challenging feat given the razor-thin Republican majority in the House. Additionally, legal challenges are expected to block significant efforts. California’s legislature, for instance, has convened to propose a $25 million legal fund to “Trump-proof” the state against such measures.
As a result, Wall Street is betting on immigration trends remaining largely stable. “Over a fifth of investors told Goldman they think immigration under Trump will exceed the pre-pandemic rate of roughly 1 million per year,” the report added.
With both spending cuts and immigration policies under heavy scrutiny, experts suggest Trump’s lofty promises are more about political theater than practical governance. Whether these plans can gain any traction remains to be seen.
