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As students across the U.S. return to school, the country is grappling with its worst COVID wave for this time of year, according to recent data. The surge in cases has been notably severe for late summer and early fall, with 44 states experiencing either high or very high levels of COVID, as reported by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on August 15.
The CDC’s latest figures show that COVID levels were higher in the week ending August 10, 2024 than in the same period in 2023 and 2022, both of which had significant summer waves. The CDC now relies primarily on wastewater data to monitor COVID levels, as the virus can be detected in human waste.
Michael Hoerger, Ph.D., an associate professor at Tulane University and head of the U.S. COVID forecasting dashboard, revealed in an August 19 post on X, “We’re at 1.3 million infections/day in the U.S. This is the highest known transmission during back-to-school season all-time. An estimated 1 in 24 people in the West region are actively infectious.”
The CDC has not yet commented on how the current COVID wave compares to previous back-to-school seasons. However, Hoerger noted, “This is the second-largest summer wave that we’ve ever had. 2022 looks like it was a little bit bigger, but we don’t know because things could still get a little bit worse.”
In 2020 and 2021, COVID levels were relatively low during back-to-school due to widespread mitigation measures. However, Hoerger explained that the “summer wave was earlier” in 2022, with its peak passing by early August. This year’s high transmission coincides with the start of the school year, making it a challenging time for families and schools.
Wastewater data from the CDC shows COVID levels in early August 2022 were around 7.92, compared to 3.23 at the same time in 2023. In 2024, levels rose to 8.31 the week ending August 3 and 8.82 the week ending August 10. “Some kids have been back to school for a couple of weeks now, but a lot of kids are just starting this week or next week, so that’s a pretty difficult situation for families and schools to manage,” Hoerger added.
Dr. Richard Malley, a senior infectious disease physician at Boston Children’s Hospital, outlined two potential scenarios for the rest of the back-to-school season: either the summer surge peaks soon, boosting immunity and leading to a calmer fall, or the surge continues, potentially leading to many cases in classrooms. Malley emphasized the importance of protecting high-risk children, even though they are at lower risk compared to adults.
Both the CDC and the American Academy of Pediatrics recommend that children aged six months and up receive the new COVID booster, expected to be available in late August or early September. Parents are encouraged to consult with their doctors about the new vaccine.
Experts also stress the importance of maintaining good hygiene and isolating sick individuals to protect high-risk family members. “Unlike influenza, COVID doesn’t disappear in the summer. It hangs out, and indeed there is a summer increase, and this year, it’s been quite substantial,” noted Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine. “COVID is not going away. We have to learn to live with it.”
